Dr. Machar is expected to arrive in Juba today (Tuesday) after he missed on his self –imposed deadlines of April 18th and 19th respectively. Juba city was a beehive of activities during those two days; all major roads leading to the airport and J1 (State House) were all locked down in anticipation of Dr. Machar. Businesses were too affected.
Soon the dust will settle, the IO-advance team will leave their hotels, some will take up their positions in the Transitional Government of National Unity. Some current government ministers will lose their positions to accommodate the IO-FDs and other political parties’ brigade.
There are few hiccups that will be felt immediately after the formation of TGoNU, in regards to the implementation of Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (ARCISS); issues to do with protocol between the Vice President and First President, the cry for cash by the Ministries to carry on with their ambitious departmental plans and many more.
But the good news to the entrepreneurs and the wider business community is that the return to peace and formation of TGoNU will lead to stabilization of the economy and renewed opportunities that this country provided upon independence in 2011. The exchange rate between the SSP and USD is expected to stabilize, it may not come down but whatever rate will be the equilibrium may not fluctuate much as has been the case during the last few months after the currency devaluation.
Those investors who flee the country because of the political crisis and the ensuing economic hardship may return and scale up their operations. For those who will not return, it’s a good business opportunity for the local boys to try their hands and provide services or goods that were being provided by those foreign firms.
The commercial banks are siting on idle cash while the business community is cash-starved. The peace will free the banks from paying so much from remitting this cash to the Bank of South Sudan; a whooping 2% of the amount is charged as a commission. The political stability will encourage the banks to lend, hoping that the bottlenecks in the regulations will also be solved. Access to credit is very key for an economy’s growth.
The peace will allow free movement of people and goods. Traders will rush to areas previously cut off from access to essential services. The conflict zones still harbors a huge population that are in dire need of food, non-food items like clothes, kitchenwares and other merchandises. People trapped in the wet and marshlands of South Sudan provide another potential market that will open up for trading activities.
This provides business opportunities for the local merchants who have been actively engaged in supplying these areas before the conflict erupted. These people will be waiting to resuscitate their domestic trading activities; new entrants will come in propping competition, which is good for the consumers.
Peace will make the Nile safe and secure again to allow resumption of river transport that has been linking the capital Juba to the northern States. When the borders with Sudan will open, the Nile will become a major facilitator of the trade between the two countries, the Nile is the only passable mode of transport right now as the road and rail networks are non-existence or very limited in reach.
The fishermen will swam the Sudd again for their fishing expeditions, a very huge potential segment of the country that is underdeveloped and continued to be suffering from underinvestment. South Sudan has a potential to supply not just the regional markets but also international ones with fish.
Juba river port will be back bustling with roaring of boat engines as they dock and leave with tones of fish and other goods. The boat builders will come back to life and earn a living.
Focus your attention on the business opportunities the peace brings and spend less time discussing the politics of coalition government that will soon be formed. South Sudan needs rebuilding and entrepreneurs have a major role to play.